Wider Market Outlook 22 October 2014

22nd October 2014

It seems to be accepted wisdom that the Bank of England base rate won’t go up until sometime in 2015 despite the fact that there appeared to be some improvement in the UK economy.

The CPI inflation measure fell to 1.2%, which was a greater reduction than had been expected.  On the flip side the latest Public Finance data released this week is anticipated to highlight that the economic recovery is not resulting in the increased tax revenues the Chancellor had been expecting.

Last week was the most volatile that has been seen in global markets for several years, which was due to a number of factors; a perception that another financial crisis in Greece would lead to trouble across the Eurozone, weak US retail sales figures, faltering growth in the emerging economies, the fall in the oil price and the Ebola crisis.

As the UK is a global trading country, with c.45% of exports going to the Eurozone the strength of economy abroad is vital to us and hence the need for base rate to remain as it is.

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